Tuesday, January 20, 2015

2014 In Review

2015 has already been well on its way and major headlines have already given investors some head scratches, here is the late 2014 stock list in review.

2014 was filled with steady growth along with some downward spikes caused by foreign markets, investors overreaction to oil prices, and central bank's QE reports. The Dow Jones was up 10% YTD, S&P up 13%, and NASDAQ up 17% YTD. This years stocks were mixed for my watch list and as some were good choices, others were not, here is how I stacked up with my forecasts:

Apple 

I gave Apple a C short term and B- long term citing its large cash flow, dominant market share, but slightly old (in tech terms) product line. Apple certainly beat my mere B- long term rating and was up over 40% YTD. This could be because of Apple's strong earning reports. Also could be because of the release of the Iphone 6 and 6 plus, some hype from their Iwatch intro along with an updated IOS system. Apple was strongly undervalued according to Carl Icahn, and he seemed to be right. 

Ford

I gave Ford a very generous A long term and was proven wrong by its weak numbers shown from its heavy investments made in foreign markets. The mistake I made in judging Ford was underestimating its risk oversees. I did not take into account Ford's enormous investments it made in the European market, which took away from their better sales data they had domestically. The updated product line of the Ford F-150 still needed to show more profit in order to lift the company last year. It was down a little less than 1% YTD. 

Cliff Natural Resources

I have never really liked Cliff Natural Resources but have always written about them since their slide has definitely intrigued me. 2014 showed no mercy to the stock and it slid over 76% YTD. This stock is one of the most shorted stocks on the NYSE and can be explained by the companies negative balance sheets and simply lower demand in iron ore, especially in China. I gave CLF a C- long term.

RPC Inc.

RPC was the better way to play oil, or so I thought. Oil has been absolutely drilled over the last few months and has been tumbling caused by over production and O.P.E.C. This could have been an interesting play if oil didn't get hit, and might still be if or when oil is on the bounce back. I gave RPC an A- long term, the stock fell 23% last year. 


American Water Works

American Water Works was one of the better stocks on the list last year and was up over 23% last year. The company made smart acquisitions and has a healthy balance sheet. It also has a nice dividend and treated investors nicely last year. I gave American Water Works a B+ long term.


Urban Outfitters 

Urban outfitters was a risky stock to watch last year and my grade of a C- long term justified that. I cited urban outfitters as a stock that didn't have a good 2013, it was off its 52 week high and that didn't justify purchasing it, the stock was down a little more than 7% last year. 


Nordstrom 

Nordstrom was another retail company I put on the list that outperformed my ranking of a C long term and was up over 27% in 2014. Nordstrom has consistently outperformed the S&P over the last 5 years and shares were slightly undervalued at the beginning of 2014, Nordstrom continued earnings growth as well.


Nike Inc

Nike was a solid stock last year and was up above 23% YTD. I gave Nike a B rating long term and grew based on its solid earning reports, and resiliency despite global economic tension. 


Emerson Electric Co.

There were better plays to be made in 2014 in the industrial industry since Emerson Electric was down over 9% last year. Although it increased dividend its largely exposed to the price of oil and since the sell off of oil, Emerson Electric has fallen, these type of industrial companies tend to follow the outlook of the global economy, which was slightly stagnant last year. I gave Emerson Electric a B- long term.


The TJX Companies 

The 3rd consumer retail I put on the list, did better than Urban Outfitters, but worse than Nordstrom, TJX was up 7% last year. It did a lot worse than my B+ short term and over the first course of last year was down as much as 13%. It pulled a great upswing at the end of last year and moving over 27% from July to December. It also increased its dividend, slightly. I gave TJX a B rating long term. 


Chesapeake Energy Corp

Chesapeake was another play effected by the oil slide and fell off over 27% last year, I did not foresee nor did a majority of investors see oil's slide coming. Again if oil were to come back Chesapeake might be an interesting play. I gave Chesapeake Energy an A- long term. 


Gold

 I didn't give gold a great rating last year (D long term) and it didn't really produce well, the commodity was down 2% last year, although it has been making some upward movements so far in early 2015. 


Facebook

Facebook blew past my expectation of a mere C+ long term, it was up over 47% YTD, apparently its traffic continued to grow and advertisements continued to bring in large sums of money, Facebook has continued to stay relevant and for that not only survived 2014, but thrived.


I may not be making a stock Watchlist 2015 but may throw in my opinion on certain stocks in the weeks to come.

Invest with Care. Not Responsible for Loses. Opinionated Investment Advice. NY Times Credit. Google Finance for percentage statistics. YTD = Year To Date. While the markets are closed on New Years Day, YTD numbers are usually to January 3rd.

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